Fuel shortage thoughts...

"Spanfeller is a twat" (theaspiringengineer) 01/08/2019 at 22:13 • Filed to: None

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So something strange started happening in 2019. Ten states suddenly ran out of fuel because of a Presidential order.

The President ordered that gasoline, diesel, and other hydrocarbons shall now be transported by lorry, rather than pipeline, to avoid fuel theft.

Fuel theft represents up to 40% of cartel’s income and it represented a loss of 3.5 billion dollars during 2018. The reason why some stations ran out of gas isn’t because they buy stolen gas as some media outlets have reported, but because of time, and the black market.

Stolen fuel is overwhelmingly sold to fleets, think cabs, for-hire trucks, and construction vehicles. So, a month ago, when the president began closing the pipes, the black market dried up.

As december is a high-demand month, and the black market dried up, gas stations began having a lot more demand than supply. This is when the fuel lorries became an issue, because they’re way, way slower than the pipelines, and many times more expensive.

I thought to myself that there’s no way said shortage would come down to Mexico City, but it apparently has arrived. Despite the President, the Mayor, and the CEO of Pemex saying Mexico City does have gas, a little walk around twitter begs to differ. Even around my community, the gas station had an hour long queue that extended a couple of blocks. I guess it's mostly people fear shopping gas.

I knew of the fuel shortage a few days ago before it hit here, and my car coincidentally needed fuel, so I have fuel.. but not a lot.

I have around 200 miles of range at my current average economy, but I don’t know what I should do with that information. I don’t know how long the shortage will last, so I don’t know how many days of the week I need to take the bus, If I economize and only use my car two days per week, I could hang on to the fuel in my tank for 9 weeks.

But it’s probably short term, and I’m overthinking it.

HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:24

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Que the apocalypse. On a very small scale. 

Spanfeller is a twat > HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles 01/08/2019 at 22:27

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I'm actually quite lucky... my commute isn't very long, the buses I can use are safe, and I don't need to move around a lot every day. I feel kind of sad for taxi drivers (for the first fucking time though) who might not be able to provide for their families.

facw > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:27

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Are there price controls? Usually in the US if there is a shortage due to a natural disaster or whatever it gets taken care of quickly because the high prices make it more profitable to sell where there’s a shortage. Outside of wartime, I’ve only read about shortages due to (probably) well-intentioned attempts to control gouging, which then prevents market forces from acting efficiently and eliminating the problem.

HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:31

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Same goes for gas stations them selves and their workers. If we didn’t have gas i would imagine that either we would close, or I’d have to send my whole staff home, with me being the only one there and only being open 7-4 Monday-Saturday. Or something stupid like that.

Point is we wouldn’t make any money. 

Spanfeller is a twat > facw 01/08/2019 at 22:35

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I think prices are controlled tightly, but i’ve been hearing that dispatchers (which are required in some states) are asking for “tips” in order to dispense more than 5 gall ons.

Spanfeller is a twat > HFV has no HFV. But somehow has 2 motorcycles 01/08/2019 at 22:37

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That is true too, plus most dispatchers here work for tips, which is so abusive.

I think the store near my house is open 24hrs a day, I’m genuinely tempted to go back and check it out at 1-2AM and see if the line is still there.

DipodomysDeserti > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:39

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When I was in high school the only two pipelines bringing fuel into Phoenix went down. It was about a week of people calling each other up and letting them know when they saw a tanker heading to a station. People would follow the tankers around and flood the stations they were at. It was surreal. For a few years after pranksters would call up radio stations and say the pipelines were down, throwing everyone into a panic.

LongbowMkII > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:48

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I’d think it’s just as easy to steal a fuel truck as tapping a pipe

Just Jeepin' > LongbowMkII 01/08/2019 at 22:52

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I suspect m ore risk, definitely  less reward. Doesn’t scale nearly as well.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 22:53

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So do the fleets buy a tanker of stolen gas or go to a hidden gas station that sells the stolen gas? I imagine a that big of an operation must leave some sort of paper trail. If you have a taxi company and 2018, have 0 gas expenses and suddenly 2019 rolls around and 50% of your operating costs show up that has to attract some attention.

I’m curious how much corruption would be reduced if Mexico pulled an India and started reducing the amount of large cash bills.

Spanfeller is a twat > LongbowMkII 01/08/2019 at 22:59

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The reason why they stopped stealing fuel for this month is because they don’t really know where the trucks are... yet, and the police have been tasked to protect the trucks, which could be attacked by cartels at any point. As illustrated here in the most annoying possible occurance in a highway:

But it’s definitively a big risk, the real solution would be to protect the pipelines more.

Spanfeller is a twat > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/08/2019 at 23:04

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Well, our largest bill is worth 50 dollars, so it’s really not a vehicle for corruption. What is however are  fake receipts, which is how most tax evasion and fraud operations are managed.

As for how illegal gas is sold.. I don’t know for certain, but I think that if you sell gas to 1000, independent taxi drivers, and 50 small contractors they could go around saying they spent/drove 30-40% less than they did. Not that it’d matter, since most taxis aren’t registered, and many of the corporations that could be tempted to buy the cheaper, stolen gas are municipal bus companies, which don’t really care about a paper trail.

Spanfeller is a twat > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/08/2019 at 23:05

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Gas stations are heavily scrutinized because Pemex keeps a ledger of how much fuel they bought, so on their tax statements if the IRS suspects that they sold more fuel than Pemex sold them , they’d be in BIG trouble.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > LongbowMkII 01/08/2019 at 23:09

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Its my understanding they tap a pipeline and si phon off (for the pipeline) what seems like a negligable amount. 

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 23:24

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I actually had a not totally unrelated discussion with a client some years back, who has more than some expertise with pipelines. (I really can’t divulge a lot there.)

Basically the problem with protecting pipelines is the same as inspecting pipelines and fixing pipelines. Nobody wants a pipeline in their backyard. Nobody is going to put up with a pipeline in their backyard. So they get put out in the middle of fucking nowhere . With nothing around for miles . And they often don’t even have any sort of access road.

So when you send that crew out to fix a pipeline in the middle of bumfuck nowhere? It’s not one crew. It’s 3+ crews. Because these pipelines were built in the ... don’t ask. And last MAPPED sometime around... really don’t ask.

So yeah. They’re not even fully sure where the hell it is to start with.

Then they’ve gotta have a crew at both access ports on either end of the problem section. Then they’ve gotta have the crew doing the actual work. So there’s 6+ hours to get the guys out there. Assuming they have a recent survey and know where the pipeline actually is . If they don’t? Now they need a locating crew too. And even then they’ve got miles and miles and miles of pipeline they have to go through to find one broken bolt.

So it’s not like you can just send the police patrols to This Particular Spot about 5 miles down This Particular Road. And even if you could, the thieves could be 50 miles away in either direction. Or more. Which is why pipeline theft works . And not just in Mexico. The Niger Delta, Russia, Azerbaijan, they all have more  pipeline theft than Mexico.

Spanfeller is a twat > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 01/08/2019 at 23:41

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Transporting fuel by truck is anywhere from 14 to 20 times more expensive per liter than by pipe, it is unsustainable.

I agree with the sentiment , and I think that poor access is one of the reasons why stealing from pipes is so easy... But transporting fuel on trucks is, quite frankly, the most childish thing this man has done.

We need high volume, we need high speed, and we need low costs. I’m sure that in the long run protecting the pipes more through aerial patrols, movement sensors, and even maybe access roads is probably more sensible to the needs of the consumers than just hoping big rigs won’t be hijacked by the cartels. 

smobgirl > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 01/08/2019 at 23:45

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I’ve run into enough location issues in the states to be all to, familiar with this mess. You can check the NPMS website, which fortunately has many but not all pipelines mapped to something like a 300- meter accuracy level. But all too often we run across old pipelines on historic topo maps that no one knows jack shit about, and we have to presume they were improperly abandoned and leaked everywhere unless we have proof otherwise. Had a lovely abandoned  jet fuel pipeline on a new construction site that still gives me nightmares.

LongbowMkII > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 23:46

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Hey, the US is really good a shooting stuff with drones. We’ll just call them economic terrorists and boom problem* solved.

*not responsible for problems that arise from murican solutions

LongbowMkII > Spanfeller is a twat 01/08/2019 at 23:47

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Yeah, that looks all sorts of expensive. 

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > Spanfeller is a twat 01/09/2019 at 00:04

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Oh, I’m not saying it isn’t unsustainable. It absolutely is nuts and idiotic, especially if you have 3 refineries and 500 gas stations. The math doesn’t work.

But there’s no possible way they can defend the pipelines unless they want to make a one mile wide line of soldiers and police going all the way from every, single, up the entire fucking pipeline. Every. Last. Foot. You just can’t do it.

Aerial patrols, motion sensors, pressure drop testing, all that shit only works if you know EXACTLY WHERE IT IS. And you don’t. Your shit’s as bad as ours. Trust me. It is at least as bad as ours.

And even where it isn’t bad? It doesn’t work. Ask Azerbijan. They know where their shit is, by and large, they have automatic detection equipment up the wazoo, and shit still gets stolen. So long as it’s wildly profitable to do so? It’s going to remain.

You want to solve this problem? Accept two facts. Fact One: this is a business , not crime. Yes it’s a criminal business, but it’s a business first . Fact Two: so long as it is the most profitable business, it will remain a business. Meaning, yes, shutting down the pipelines does nothing more but... make gas theft an even MORE profitable business!

Great job! A+ stellar job, Senor Sorta-Trump!

So yeah. The hijackings will start any day now, rest assured. Because they’re in it to make money.

They want to solve this shit? They’re going to have to stop with this infantile, long disproven war on drugs bullshit and bring the cartels to the table with a viable, competitive business offer. Offer them a structured monopoly on legalized cannabis growing, imports, and exports. They already own the cops, help ‘em stand up their own Blackwater (which has the bonus of getting them the fuck out of your country.)

The guys this is supposed to be hurting, I assure you, are just sitting at home laughing about it anyways. Because now they can charge 4-8x as much for the bit they set aside AND going forward.

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > smobgirl 01/09/2019 at 00:09

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Oh, the best ones are the ones where you’re dealing with a MAJOR distributor. MAJOR MAJOR. Tier 1 guys.

They will pull out actual paper maps from, oh, probably sometime around the civil war. No joke. No topography. Not to scale. “Well, we figger it’s somewhere hereabout. So we’re gonna have ta send the GPR team out to find it, should only be a week. Then we can trace it.” No idea what depth, what it’s carrying, and then... BAM. “Well this ain’t ours.”

One of the calls I was on, the guy interrupted me really suddenly said “I gotta call you back, one of our pipelines just exploded.” ... okay then.

Five minutes later, “Wasn’t ours. PHMSA had the wrong map.”

PHMSA.

edit: what I generally provide is specially integrated systems which are designed and tuned for seismic analysis and GIS analysis work, not maps. Basically “whar’s tha oil?!” rather then “can we drill deeper” or “can we pump faster.”

Spanfeller is a twat > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 01/09/2019 at 00:10

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Yeah, I guess somethings are just inevitable. The only way to make fuel theft unprofitable would be to give it away for free, which would be hilariously bad for our economy.

In the end I think that the drug war was idiotic as well, and that surge in drug prices did help the cartels invest in other ways of making millions of lives  a living nightmare.

smobgirl > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 01/09/2019 at 00:14

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Hahahaha yeah we’ve been faxed a few of those old paper maps. Because they weren’t illegible enough in their original form...

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > Spanfeller is a twat 01/09/2019 at 00:24

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Yup. Senor Sorta-Trump has created a ‘win-win’ situation in true Sorta-Trump style.

And now there’s no sane way out of any of this morass because none of the players will back down. That would make them seem ‘weak.’ So it’s the population who starves and suffers. While they enjoy caviar and cold Coronas.

Spanfeller is a twat > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 01/09/2019 at 00:28

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The situation about the gas will end up blowing over. Nothing is more populist than cheap fuel, but if there’s no fuel, how can you spin it as good to the masses that feel entitled to cheap fuel? 

Many say this is going to be a lost sexennial, but meh. It’s not like Peña Nieto or Calderon made our country better, so if we just stay where we are it’s actually sort of potentially better for many people. 

random001 > Spanfeller is a twat 01/09/2019 at 07:44

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